Ten Things has one focus this week - China.
A few months ago I was at a conference in Oslo, speaking with a former Chief of Staff from NATO. We were chatting about what the world was learning from the crisis in the Ukraine, and whether this would influence how to plan for a conflict in the Asia-Pacific theatre. The man was smart and accomplished. But he had a blind spot - China.
I won’t re-hash the entire conversation here, but it was clear that he was more interested in where China has stumbled than where it has excelled. This a major risk of Western business and policy leaders. They consistently and structurally underestimate the PRC. Or at least, they just aren’t sufficiently curious.
This week, it’s an info dump about Chinese momentum, resources, dynamics, and challenges.
One leader who does seem to get it is Ray Dalio. Here’s his take on the emerging world order. It’s worth the read.
Until next week friends.
Transition skeptics love to point to China’s coal dependence. But it’s a nuanced story.
Source: Ember
Another look at the story of thermal energy generation in China.
Source: Rhodium Group
Here’s a more dramatic look, putting the transition into perspective.
Source: Rhodium Group
A snapshot of China’s trade patterns.
Source: Rand
Revenue sources of various levels ofgovernment in China.
Source: Rand
Note where the spending has shifted over time.
Source: Rand
China’s two-track economy.
Source: Semafor
Who will re-awaken the Chinese consumer? And how?
Source: Semafor
Is this China’s biggest risk?
Source: Semafor
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