I’m paraphrasing iconic CDL mentor Bill Brown on some advice he shared with the room during our session. AI gives us all a chance to go both wide and deep. Specialization is great, but more important now is the ability to move laterally and adapt.

You don’t have to go back too far in cultural history to find the ultimate renaissance man. Jean-Luc Picard. I’m late to the party in offering sombre condolences, but the loss of Patrick Stewart was felt by many. And most frequently it was folks’ relationship with his character on Star Trek that created such a deep connection.

Part of the character’s appeal was the breadth of his talents and interests. From diplomacy to survival skills to leadership to archaeology, he showed how we thrive when we don’t limit ourselves to one discipline or role. And he was utterly, unapologetically optimistic. He believed in himself, in others, and in the society around him. He recognized flaws, but never stopped believing in progress.

I’ll quote and endorse Noah Smith’s opinion here:

It is the greatest TV show ever made, not by dint of a difference in degree, but because of a difference in kind. It is a drama of pure optimism. Every other show tries to thrill us by showing us how bad or how ridiculous or how exciting someone else’s world could be; Star Trek: TNG thrills us by showing us how beautiful our own world could become.

I don’t think a character like Picard could capture our attention today, and we are poorer for it. Our attention is fractured. Monoculture is dead. There is no congregating at a fixed time in front of a screen, sitting through the same drama together (sports being the one exception).

And so let me end by sharing a maxim I’ve often applied when I encounter a difficult question:

“What would Jean-Luc Picard do?”

The dying heart of monoculture is basic cable.

Source: Semafor

We are split across endless streams of personalized content. And this doesn’t even measure TikTok.

Source: Prof G Markets

Another lens on how we spend our time.

Source: Ampere

The markets aren’t feeling optimistic about the future of major media companies.

When we are online, it’s not even social anymore.

Source: John Burn-Murdoch

Even Wikipedia might die as a monoculture, as we move to an AI-first world.

Source: Wikimedia Foundation (Pageviews API)

New music has never been less popular. The idea of a “hit song” feels almost quaint.

Source: Source: IRENA

Sports remains one place that every congregates. As a result, these scarce assets have shot up in value.

Source: Prof G Media

Speaking of sports: I feel obliged to point the mind-boggling outlier that is LeBron James.

Source: Basketball Reference (via Semafor)

Maybe people should care more about their neighbours, communities, planet, decency, institutional decay, and other non-economic things. We can be disappointed that they don’t.

But we should also appreciate how stuck so many folks feel. The economy is how most people take the temperature of their own future. Sometimes the price of gas is more than the price of gas.

Prices are higher. Homes aren’t selling. Careers aren’t as predictable as they used to be, making it hard to imagine a future that’s better than the present. Throw in income inequality, an unwinding global order and the relentless march of AI? I can see why voters are feeling glum and inclined to give incumbents the boot.

Now, the last couple of weeks have seen elections bucking the trend of incumbent equals bad (Brazil and Israel, sort of). But it’s also seen incumbents kicked to the curb in Vancouver, in BC, and in Serbia. And then there’s a most dramatic affair coming up in just a few short days: the US mid-terms.

I’m not going to make a prediction. I will note that relying on young men to turn out to support the GOP might be a risky bet (they really swung things in Trump’s direction in 2024). The charts this week are a sort of temperature check. How are people feeling about the economy? Turns out… not that great.

We’ll find out Tuesday night if Carville’s maxim holds true, 34 years later.

Until next week, friends.

Elections are usually about the economy. But this time it really is all about the economy.

Source: Economist

Democrats are seen as better positioned to do something about it.

Source: The Argument

Consumer goods Inflation would have been negative without the tariffs.

Source: New York Fed

Re-shoring works for output but not employment.

Source: FT

The big surge in IT spend (e.g. data centres) is widening the trade deficit further.

Source: NY Times

Four years ago, 54% of US mortgages were below the market rate. In 2025, that figure was 97%.

Source: Economist

The US housing market is essentially frozen. This will impact many retirement plans.

Source: JP Morgan

I’d guess this means fewer buyers in that frozen market. And less life satisfaction too.

Source: Pew

It’s the economy. And Iran. And corruption. And Epstein. And the reflection pool. And, and, and…

This is all built on the back of Chinese industrial capacity and the willingness of importers to cooperate. Countries in the global south tend to lack the capacity, tools, or concentrated opposition (hello auto unions) to slow this down. And as fast-growing markets for energy, where they go, so goes the world. (Caveat here for the insanity that is data center construction in the United States).

An important question - is it a good idea to outsource all this industrial activity to a foreign country? A simple question, but with no simple answers.

And then there’s the lesson from Hormuz: fossil fuels are a driver of inflation, volatility, and insecurity. For one example this week, just look at the fuel lines in Bali. It bears repeating: you can’t blockade the sun.

The technology, infrastructure, and capital are now in place to build the next version of global energy systems. They have reached, in effect, a “positive tipping point”. The more wires chew pipelines, the easier it gets for wires to chew pipelines.

The concept, popularized by Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, suggests that in combating climate change, we need to be as interested in achieving positive tipping points as we are in avoiding negative ones (like AMOC collapse).

Of course, for other systems, things aren’t as simple. Panels get cheaper the more we make. Wetlands, not so much. And as far as I know, there’s no learning curve for sustainable fisheries. There are places where techno-optimism can only take us so far. We’re going to need to positive tipping points in our food and finance systems - and regulation and social pressure will the big drivers there.

But in energy, the game has changed. And my biggest concern: Canada hasn’t quite noticed. Sure, the Carney government has shown a real appetite to move fast. Good. But on the projects that are getting the most attention - LNG Canada Phase 2, PacificLink - I’m lukewarm at best. Not because of the negative climate impacts. Because I think we’ll arrive ten years late to a market that doesn’t need us.

And so, this week puts that all in context. Chinese economic activity, exports, learning curves, and the effects of Hormuz on global oil consumption. Oddly enough, there’s a good deal to feel positive about.

Until next week, friends.

China was perfectly positioned to take advantage of instability. Putin and Trump cooperated.

Source: JP Morgan

Other than exports, China’s economy is in a precarious place (home sales in particular).

Source: JP Morgan

This is cars, not cheap toys. The rate of change is hard to fathom.

Source: JP Morgan

What energy security looks like. Climate is just a side benefit.

Source: Bloomberg

Of all those Pakistani imports, most are not grid connected. Not a great thing, but solvable.

Source: Jan Rosenow

The longer prices are high and conflict persists, the slower the bounce-back will be.

Source: Carbon Brief

Buyers are responding rationally. Especially in countries with small (or zero) domestic car manufacturing.

Source: Ember

Only two key markets in the EU (Czechia and Croatia) are majority ICE.

Source: ICCT

Regardless of drivetrain, global automakers have a massive overcapacity problem.

Source: Bloomberg

But beyond the suspect, fragile, and circular financing, there’s another bubble: the take that AI is a fad.

Paul Krugman makes the best version of it. He calls it a technology “of, by and for oligarchs”, one that has soaked up record spending and created hardly any jobs. Krugman has been here before. In 1998, he predicted that by 2005 the internet’s economic impact would prove “no greater than the fax machine’s.” Whoops.

Only 2.2% of US households pay for an AI subscription. The median employee in corporate America has about 14$ per month in spend allocated to AI. There is, in short, tremendous room for growth.

Sceptics are blending two questions: does AI work, and what are companies choosing to do with it?

David Schatsky at Harvard’s Belfer Center studied 22 GenAI applications that executives said were working. In 91% of them, the value came from one thing: shifting work from people to machines.

That’s the least ambitious lever available and not where the payoff is. A study of 2,000 firms found that more AI investment went hand in hand with more sales, more hiring and higher valuations. The growth came from new products, not cost cutting.

Yet Deloitte finds twice as many companies chasing AI savings as chasing revenue. Why? Because cutting is safe. Growth means rewiring how work gets done, waiting to see if it pays, and making mistakes along the way.

Felix Rieseberg, who leads engineering on Claude, offers a better vocabulary. You should read the full thing. He sorts AI ambition into four types:

• Speed: the same work in less time. Where most of AI’s value sits today. Also the replacement play.

• Altitude: aiming at the outcome, not the task. Less “do this”, more “what are we actually trying to make happen?”

• Depth: doing the work the way the best person in the field would. Their tools, their raw data, their standards.

• Range: pulling in fields the task never seemed to need, because borrowing that expertise used to cost too much.

Sadly, most AI strategy seems to stop at Speed. Rieseberg’s key insight should inspire all of our thinking - the bottleneck isn’t the technology, it’s what we believe we’re allowed to try. (Or as Big Jim would say, “You’ll only see it if you believe it.”)1

Academics, policy wonks, people already in secure positions: they’re very good at explaining why AI is overhyped, pointing out pitfalls, contradictions, or placing it in perspective. But as a group, I suspect they are 1) kind of bad at actually using AI at its highest level and 2) as a result, much less comfortable imagining what it’s good for.

Every chart this week builds on this theme. Where AI is actually killing jobs (call centres), the ones it’s creating (construction, software and data), and evidence that HR managers in finance now care more about your AI fluency than your alma mater (sorry, academic recruiters).

Until next week, friends.

98% of households don’t pay for AI. Sothere’s a lot of room to grow.

Source: Andreessen Horowitz

The tokenmaxxers are clawing back spend. The median employee is a massive, untapped market.

Source: Ramp

The labs’ revenue is the hyperscalers’ investment case which has become semiconductor FCF.

Source: Andreessen Horowitz

All this spend has created a job boom in key segments of the US economy.

Source: Goldman Sachs

While broad based job losses aren’t here (yet), call centre operations are an exception.

Source: Revelio Labs

The job losses in call centre are hitting high income countries the hardest.

Source: Revelion Labs

While the call centre declines, software anddata jobs are booming (and pay much better).

Source: Revelio Labs

HR managers in finance don’t care where youstudied. They care about your AI fluency.

Source: Shelby Jennings

This glimpse depressed me. It was at Science World, on the big metal slide, one of the best in the city (Vancouver parents know the one).

Maybe I’m reading too much into it. But this young man had moved his joy from something intrinsic to something that needed to be shared and validated by an anonymous audience.

I’ve heard similar stories from parents about how phones are rupturing childhood. Yes, our schools have banned them. But parents still hand them to their kids. The peer pressure is intense. We overuse them ourselves. The harms are subtle and often ignored.

A young woman I know is struggling at school because she doesn’t know the TikTok slang. She doesn’t know the right dances. She’s being ostracized as a result. She’s 10 years old. I don’t blame her peers. I blame the parents who’ve given their children access to these devices and platforms.

Kids are increasingly unhappy, less social, spend too much time on their phones, don’t read, and their test scores are declining across developed economies.

We have given children access to something that poisons their self-esteem and undermines their development. We don’t hand out bottles of liquor or loaded guns to children. But a smartphone? Merry Christmas, honey.

Here’s a proposal: giving children smartphones must become a social taboo.

It should be seen as equivalent to abuse or sending them to work in a factory. Something that a functional and prosperous society would simply not allow.

This is also represents a massive collective action problem. If one family draws a line, they end up isolating their children. We have to approach this together, through consensus. What we are doing is wrong, and it contributes to a wide range of ills you’ll see in this week’s Ten Things.

Until next week, friends.

This is an emergency. Are we going to act?

Source: Family Studies

Touch grass may be a phrase, but it isn’t necessarily a behaviour.

Young folks are at least aware of how addictive these devices are.

If reading focuses and expands the mind, what does not reading do?

Across the OECD test scores are down. COVID played a role, but so did smartphones.

Social media has ingrained a new value in us all: money is the most important thing.

Those who are happy tend to be religious and married.

Source: Family Studies

And those who are least happy are single and secular.

Source: Family Studies

Nobody is hosting guests at home anymore.

Source: Derek Thompson

Maybe drinking is bad for your physical health. But what about connection and community?

Liability eventually arrived, but only after the damage was done.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, believes it’s his responsibility to not do bad things. That he takes this very seriously. That the risk of legal liability incentivizes high-quality decision-making. If we had to distill (pun intended) his argument about AI safety to one line: If a model isn’t safe, don’t ship it.

It’s tempting to agree with him. But the historical track record isn’t great. A CEO’s incentives are to create shareholder value first, and manage liability later. Great if you are holding $NVDA, not so great if you just want to manage societal risk.

Acknowledging risk is not anti-innovation. It makes innovation stick. Cars got seatbelts and a regulator, and US road deaths per mile driven fell by roughly three quarters.

Flying got investigators, black boxes and a culture of reporting every near miss. Now it’s the safest way to travel. Nobody boards a plane because they trust the airline’s CEO. They trust the regulators.

Bill Gates has been sounding the alarm of late. His core message? The models that are out there, in the wild today, carry the potential for catastrophic risk. In the long run, the risk of massive economic disruption and some existential questions about alignment.

But the biggest concern is more immediate. Bad actors today could leverage AI to start pandemics, attack financial systems or cripple utilities.

I’d like to propose Pascal’s Wager for the AI age:

“Install the safeguards and be wrong? We lose a few months. Skip them and be wrong? We lose the bet.”

Take the time and listen to each lay out their argument in interviews with Ezra Klein:
Jensen Huang Thinks A.I. Alarmism Has Gone Too Far
Bill Gates: A.I. ‘Makes Nuclear Weapons Look Like Nothing’

Putting the pace of change in context.

Extraordinary capital outlays are enabling this change.

Source: WSJ

Spending on data centers (and associated tech) exceeds residential investment in the USA.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Maybe this time it really is different.

Source: Semafor

Some bullish projections, sure. But worth pondering.

Source: Semafor

American exuberance (and capital) is a magnet for AI research talent.

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

For tech employment, California isn’t in the dominant position it used to be.

Source: Apricitas Economics

All this build-out is not at all popular.

Source: Semafor

What if adoption is more important than capability? If so, China is winning the AI race.

Source: Semafor

Well, if initial polls are to be trusted, out of the gate, the Conservatives already have the lead. Now, the sample sizes are small, and things can change. Lord knows what new dirt will emerge about the various distasteful positions and flip-flops of their candidates.

But if I were Eby, there’s one stat I’m very concerned with. Almost 50% of people who support the NDP think that the election was called keep to Eby in power, not benefit the province. When your own supporters smell the cynicism, that’s probably cause for concern.

What British Columbians want is an adult in the room. Serious policy and competence. Make hard choices. Communicate clearly. Avoid mud-slinging. Show us a plan for getting out of this fiscal mess. A plan for making government more effective. A plan for growing an economy that leverages our strengths and diversifies our relationships.

Eby had two years to do that work with a safe and stable majority and an opposition in disarray. Instead, he called an election. He had every incentive to do so. But it may end up being the worst decision he’s ever made.

Lots of other great fodder this week. Those in higher education are going to love the first chart. Maybe this is why we’re having such a hard time adopting AI in this domain. There’s a thought.

The fastest growing category of tenured professor in Canada? 65+

Source: The Globe and Mail

TikTok was introduced circa 2017. And then educational performance went off a cliff.

Source: OECD

Elections of choice are a risky gambit.

Source: Angus Reid

Half of NDP voters think Eby is putting politics over the best interests of the province.

Source: Angus Reid

Costco has started rationing motor oil. We’re going to need a word beyond quagmire for what Trump has done.

Source: Financial Times

This is the biggest risk for the GOP in November.

Source: Semafor

America’s war, but not Americans don’t like it.

Source: Nate Silver

Meta’s stock price has found its Muse.

Source: S&P Capital IQ (via Semafor)

The business of business is lobbying. Milton Friedman in shambles.

Source: The Globe and Mail

Buckle up, kids.

Source: Gerald Butts

Thanks for making is this far. If you are still reading, send me a meme?

I have way too many charts I want to share (getting it down to 10 is hard). But oh so few memes.

I’m going to try and not think about this says about me.

Until next week, friends!

Nuggets of wisdom hit differently at 6AM, when you are reading the Berenstain Bears for the 863rd time. Papa Bear was on to something.

Most of my life, being Canadian was kind of easy. And yes, I recognize how privileged that sounds, but it’s true.

We didn’t have to think about our stability, our relationships, our alliance, or their durability. But things change.

I’ve been having a lot of conversations lately with students, colleagues, and aspiring politicians. There’s a seriousness about Canada that is not something I’ve experienced before. Serious concerns, yes, about our constitutional order, about our obsession with procedure, our hesitancy to act.

But also serious optimism that we have the resources, the ideas, the capital, and the talent to make things happen.

Sure, the good ol’ confirmation bias is kicking in, and I’m finding voices and sources and stories that affirm my point of view. But I find myself seeing a lot of builders out there: new voices, and ideas, and a determination to get things done.

This week’s Ten Things are all about people and their feelings, fears, views, and concerns. And the data might suggest that at least a few folks are willing to listen to Papa Bear and are ready to make things happen.

A survey is one thing. Turnout will be another.

Source: CBC

What explains the disparity? One possibility: housing.

Source: Canadian Survey Stuff

Fascinating differences between the US and Canada on this one.

Source: Canadian Survey Stuff

Only 11 conventional energy projects. Just sayin’.

Source: Katsuna Research

Whether Canadians actually share more with Europe is open to debate. But it’s how they feel.

Source: Canadian Polling

Is there a prediction market that would let me bet on shifts in these views?

Source: Semafor

America and China are competing for Australians’ distrust. Great power rivalry indeed.

Source: Semafor

One irony of the AfD: they are most popular where there are the fewest foreign nationals.

Source: Financial Times

That afternoon, after the second plane made clear what had happened, our instructors did not know what to do.

Somehow a course introduction, syllabus review, or instructions on where to find readings felt out of place.

I was part of a now-defunct program called “Foundations.” Offered by the Faculty of Arts, the vision was an interdisciplinary teams of scholars working to give us, well, a foundation.

Political scientists, scholars of religion, and economists worked together to craft courses that felt disconnected at first, but represented the messiness that is reality. The same class had you reading excerpts from the Old Testament, John Rawls’ theories of justice, and then getting into the nuances of a productivity frontier in economics.

In a time of crisis and unknowing, this diversity was a strength. Because the team understood, deeply, that something was happening. They tossed out the lesson plan, acknowledged the intensity of the moment, and provided us with perspective and wisdom.

We were forced into the torrent of history that day, aware that it would establish a clearly marked before and after. I’m grateful to those instructors for not buckling under pressure and helping us first-years make sense of the world.

Starting a journey of higher education on a day of rupture was probably useful. It established change – painful, sudden, sometimes evil, and often unwelcome – not as an outlier, but as the norm. And that’s a lesson we need to still be teaching.

Twenty-five years later, I still find value in looking across disciplines to make sense of a changing world. That’s part of what I’m doing with Ten Things each week.

This week is a look at how we’re all hopelessly addicted to our phones, how the old in Canada are happier than the young, and how demographics are poised to reshape everything… and more.

Until next week, friends.

Are the Boomers in denial? Or do they just use phones less?

Source: Gallup

Why are old people in Canada so much happier than the young? Other countries are the opposite.

Source: Hannah Ritchie

Since climate, AI, and geopolitics don’t represent enough crises… Why not demographics too!

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Canada needs to take a hard look at its long-term immigration strategy.

Source: RBC

You don’t often see so many Canadians all agree on something.

Source: The Globe and Mail

Carney’s approach has a broad base of support.

Source: The Globe and Mail

Canadians are constantly being told that Asia wants our gas. We need more long-term thinking.

Source: Carbon Brief

Market share of new EVs across key markets. As Razzouk says, “wires chew pipelines.”

Source: Assaad Razzouk

What once was cool no longer is. That’s not an easy thing to turn around.

Source: The Globe and Mail

Hate algorithms? Like curated content? Want to pander to your professor? Share this publication with a friend!

Share Ten Things

I yelped after stepping on a piece just earlier this morning (life with kids).Which is a strange thing to be doing in 2026, because the key patent on those ABS-molded bricks expired in 1978.

Anyone can legally make the identical brick and plenty do, although they’re banned in my household (imitation Lego is heretical). Lego still went from $1bn in revenue in 2004 to over $12bn last year. Because Lego actually sells something that’s fun, teaches, and keeps getting better.

De Beers has launched “Diamonds are Forever” in 1947. And then, in 2018, launched its own lab-grown line. They legitimized the substitute and taught the customer it existed. Today, a natural diamond retails at $7,570 and lab-grown at $870. Rings will never be the same.

Both companies charge a premium. One earned it, while the other extracted. Any bets on which lasts longer?

Anyways, that’s what I’m thinking about this week. Because record corporate profits, massive debt levels, and the endless cycle of anger in American politics is just a bit too much for the last week before school starts.

Until next week friends.

How much profit is enough?

Source: Financial Times

With GPT-6 Astra rolling out, cybersecurity stocks seem like a smart bet.

Source: Semafor

Podcasts consumption is blurring boundaries. Are they becoming TV?

Source: Semafor

Over the decades, political speech in America has gotten much angrier.

Source: The Economist

Fortunately, there’s a strong bipartisan consensus about tackling this.

Source: The Economist

The Americans’ have a declining supply of easy-to-access horizontal wells.

Source: EIA

Offices in SF have never recovered from COVID.

Source: Semafor

Learn from my mistakes: don’t ask someone about the stone on their engagement ring. It’s a new faux pas.

Source: Bloomberg

The relentless march of Lego.

Source: Bloomberg

This also applies to humans living with cats….

But have we learned nothing from Hormuz? In war, having a willingness to fight and endure pain might be the most important ingredient.

To Americans, this trade escalation is just another headline in an endless flood of political noise. To Canadians, it is a direct and clear affront to our sense of sovereignty.

A willingness to suffer changes the calculus of asymmetrical conflicts. North of the border, I see a largely united Canada. South of the border is unrivalled dysfunction.

Until next week friends.

—

Canadians will be more inclined to suffer pain in this unfolding drama.

Source: New North America Initiative

Canada isn’t lacking in leverage.

Source: Bloomberg

Public support for data center construction has collapsed.

Source: Semafor

It’s helpful to put the impact of AI queries in context.

Source: Hannah Richie

China’s playing the long game. And the energy transition is core to that strategy.

Source: The Economist

The US (3.4%) vs. China (1.7%) is the most interesting comparison.

Source: China Power

Is this Xi’s biggest challenge?

Source: Semafor

Just in case you haven’t seen enough scary charts about the Treasury market lately.

Source: Financial Times

Over-reliance on fees from international students is a dangerous game.

Source: Semafor

Congrats on making it this far. Time for some reader engagement!

You may have noticed that all the charts match this week. Turns out some time in Claude can result in a skill (and various QA loops and codes and such) that lets you re-skin content to make it visually consistent. But I have a question…

One example? 3000 Americans were asked whether free-trade agreements are a good idea. The group most in favour? DSA-supporting Dems at 54%. The group most opposed? Republicans at 25%.

I’m old enough to remember the 1999 WTO riots in Seattle. An assembly of left-leaning groups largely opposed to globalization. 27 years later, their message seems to have landed… Just not in the place anyone expected.

Economic anxiety seems to scramble what people believe. But addressing that anxiety doesn’t guarantee popular support. Consider how both Trump and Starmer (RIP) addressed uncontrolled migration. Both promised to do so, and largely succeeded. Did they experience a popularity bump? Hardly. Trump is exploring historical depths of unpopularity and Starmer isn’t even in charge any more.

Perhaps the anxiety wasn’t really about migration, but something deeper. Antonio Gramsci’s framing, conjured up 100 years ago when imprisoned by Mussolini for his Marxist beliefs, feels particularly apt: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

The DSA loves free trade. Wasn’t on my bingo card.

Source: The Argument

Trump can accomplish some things.

Source: Semafor

And so did Starmer (although not enough to keep No. 10).

Source: Semafor

Nobody is happy with Trump’s handling of the economy. And this is with buoyant stock markets.

Source: WSJ

This is a shift that markets might punish.

Source: Washington Post

The chart that terrifies educators. Teaching and learning must rapidly evolve.

Source: The Economist

Environmental shareholder proposals at Russell 3000 companies. Weak and waning.

Source: Trellis

More energy market chaos looms. Another pipeline to Canada’s West Coast would have a limited impact.

Source: Semafor

Good to see South Africa pivot to exports that are actually useful.

Source: The Economist

The chart that has me most befuddled is why across over 1.1 million comments in r/relationship_advice over 15 years, the likelihood of the Reddit hivemind suggesting to “End Relationship” (that is, break up, divorce, or go no contact) has gone from 31 to 49%.

This move to an either/or mindset is depressing. It’s like polarization is a vicious cycle. The more we see it in one place, the more likely we are to apply it elsewhere. Some evidence? The rapid and massive collapse in Canada’s trust of the USA year over year.

Also this week... The relentless march of solar, the staggering scale of wildfires in BC, and the decline of Bud Light (has HBR written that case study yet? It’ll be spicy...)

Until next week, friends.

The rich world is kind of sitting out the current energy revolution.

Source: BNEF

Solar in the Global South has hit escape velocity.

Source: BNEF

Panels (and their costs) aren’t the bottleneck. Grids, connections, permits and capital are.

Source: BNEF

I believe this is called an own goal.

Source: JP Morgan

Some perspective on the current fire sizes in BC

Source: The Globe and Mail

I blame Gen Z, Dylan Mulvaney, and people realizing Bud tastes terrible.

Source: Financial Times

Does anyone even care about this anymore? Ron Paul is weeping.

Source: Financial Times

Reddit thinks breaking up is easy (and the right thing) to do. Why the stark change?

Source: Reddit

Will Canadians learn to trust again?

Source: Semafor

Jobs!

Chief Strategy and Impact Officer | Green Climate Fund

Verified Carbon Markets+ Program Project Manager | The Nature Conservancy

Board Director | Sasuchan Development Corporation

Associate/Sr. Associate, Investment Operations | UBC Investment Management

Climate Reporting Analyst Intern, Environment, Social & Governance | Concert Properties

Yes, they have deep roots. Glorious history. And many of the companies have governance models that give labour a meaningful seat at the table.

But they got greedy.

When times were good, and the luxury market in China was booming, EU-based firms were massively profitable. Did they use these windfalls to increase capex and R&D? Nope. Dividends, share buy-backs, and building big financial reserves.

Now they’re in dire straits; Chinese consumers moved on, and Chinese manufacturers are quickly moving into the EU (their share of new sales went from 3 to 6 percent in the last 12 months).

Beyond that lament, Ten Things checks in on Argentina’s public finances, why the wage gap between Canada and the US isn’t that straightforward, and whether musicians will survive AI (spoiler: they will).

Until next week friends.

Not long ago, EU car companies were the most profitable on earth.

Source: SOMO

But they also cut investment the fastest. Are they deserving of a bailout?

Source: SOMO

Public finances can be turned around. But it is not pleasant.

Source: Semafor

Wage discrepancies between Canada and the USA are a problem of the top 10%.

Source: The Globe and Mail

When it comes to tokens, good is the enemy of frontier.

Source: Prof G Media

American employers are missing out on international talent.

Source: Bloomberg

In the new space race, Russia isn’t even relevant. Will China catch up with the Americans once again?

Source: Bloomberg

Want to anger the American electorate? Start with expensive hamburgers.

Source: Financial Times

The radio, CD, or streamer didn’t kill “musician” as a job. AI won’t either.

Source: Economic Innovation Group

Is that a ragebait headline? Sure. But the charts back it up.

There’s a lot of chatter about a sustainability recession. When executives were asked which “sustainability” initiatives are getting rolled back, 44% pointed to DEI clawbacks. Compare this to only 10% who expecting a slow down in climate transition investment.

Meanwhile, the masters of the universe on Wall Street put out a bevy of research notes pegging SpaceX between $205 (Goldman Sachs) and $300 (Morgan Stanley). The price as of July 24? $113. Whoops.

Finally, it has taken four years, but Ukraine has succeeded in making the average Russian feel this war. Consumer confidence is collapsing, and the pivot from oil infrastructure to shipping to online retailers is why…. turns out being agile isn’t just a good strategy for software development.

Until next week, friends.

Why are CPC votes such an outlier on this? Sad to see climate so polarized.

Source: Angus Reid Institute

Canadians’ response to misinformation. And ineffective climate communication.

Source: Angus Reid Institute

Drone warfare has turned fossil fuels into weakness.

Source: Financial Times

Russian consumer confidence is collapsing. The attacks on Wildberries are not going to help.

Source: Gallup

Speaking of collapsing confidence… Higher Ed has its work cut out.

Source: Gallup

The sustainability recession is not evenly distributed. Can’t say I’m surprised.

Source: GlobeScan

What Wall Street told clients about the SpaceX IPO….

Source: Financial Times

… And how that is working out.

Source: Financial Times

Trump II has no faith in career diplomats. Rebuilding this function will take more than an election.

Source: Financial Times

Jobs!

Internships - National Online Forensics

Technical Recruiter - Tundra

Senior Power and Philanthropy Reporter - Future of Good

Program Coordinator- Canucks Autism Network

Senior Financial Analyst - Nch’ḵay̓ Development Corporation

Is anyone actually losing their job to AI?

Why are Canadians and Americans much more pessimistic about AI than the rest of the world?

Why are political lefties twice as likely as the right to consider day-to-day challenges a mental health problem?

Is shareholder primacy a good idea when 1% of earners own 50% of capital markets?

What’s the value of collecting and curating and distributing charts? I’ll take a stab at this. It’s not that charts answer anything, but they help sharpen the quality of your questions.

Until next week, friends.

So, not a bubble?

Source: Bloomberg

Do you know anyone who’s actually lost their job to AI?

Source: Semafor

What accounts for these differences? A fascinating puzzle.

Source: Semafor

Here’s another puzzle. What’s your hypothesis?

Source: Financial Times

Do we re-think shareholder primacy in lightof this? Should we?

Source: Reuters

Carney giveth, Carney taketh away.

Source: The Globe and Mail

Can’t wait to read another hype piece about an SMR that’s over budget and delayed.

Source: Semafor

2050 isn’t that far off. The scale of opportunity (and challenges) in Africa is extraordinary.

Source: The Economist

The s-curve transition strikes again.

Jobs!

Technology Transfer Officer | UBC

BioProcess Intern | Tydra Labs

Manager, Digital Learning Support | UBC Sauder

Manager, Development Operations and Donor Engagement | UBC Sauder

Manager, Global Learning | UBC Sauder

Senior Economist | Vancity

There are 7 upcoming by-elections in Canada, but Lewis has declined to run in any of them. Smart strategy to focus on party building at the NDP? Or even smarter to avoid the current (almost staggering) popularity of the Carney juggernaut?

Speaking of by-elections, what’s unfolding in the UK is the peak of the British electorate being gloriously unserious. Nigel Farage trigged a by-election for August 13th to help stave off accusations of financial impropriety. All the other major parties have declined to run against him, and now Count Binface is ahead in the polls.

Elsewhere this week: anchovies rattle the global food system, the Mag7 makes a bet on everyone else, and twenty years of social progress unravels in three.

Until next week friends…

Your farmed fish is about to get a lot more expensive.

Source: Bloomberg

The last strong El Niño was a turning-point for global fisheries and aquaculture.

Source: Bloomberg

The profits of the Mag7 are a bet that future profits of the S&P493 will increase.

Source: Appollo

Normally by-elections aren’t this riveting. August 13^th is looming…

Source: Ipsos

12% of voters know who Avi Lewis is.

Source: Pollara

Pierre has got to be happy with 57%. (Sadlythe poll didn’t measure familiarity of Carney…)

Source: Pollara

Twenty years of progress has unraveled.

Source: Gallup

More LGBTQ+ adults are in opposite-sex marriages than same-sex.

Source: Gallup

This week in good news…

Source: Semafor

Jobs!

Program Steward, Building Seven Generations | Light House

Project Manager, Climate and Decarbonization | JLL

Energy and Economic Policy Research Analyst | Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions

Assistant Vice-President, Indigenous Initiatives | York University

Vice President, Strategic Investment | Invest Vancouver

A lot of token spend is an absolute waste. And, hopefully, we can put the era of tokenmaxxing behind us. But what’s also a waste? Having no sense of what your token budget should be. If your CFO hasn’t started penciling that in, you haven’t begun to model out the ROI of AI. That’s a lot of missed opportunity.

And in the midst of this FIFA mania, I’d like to point out how accessible joy seems to be to my Mexican neighbours. Their open window lets me listen in to Spanish-language broadcasts of matches. Even the possibility of a goal elicits more excitement than the average Canadian ever experiences. Something exceptional is going on in Latin America, and the data around life satisfaction relative to GDP has something to teach the rest of the world. I’ll have what they're having.

Until next week friends.

Should every organization have a token budget, with both a ceiling and a floor?

Source: SemiAnalysis

Will token costs drive folks to different models?

Source: JP Morgan

The US energy system hasn’t really felt the looming AI energy demand crunch yet.

Source: SemiAnalysis

Does the stock market have the appetite for all the pending equity issuances?

Source: Bloomberg

Car factories make for great photo ops, but are a small piece of the Canadian economic pie.

Source: The Globe and Mail

Now let’s add China to the mix…

Source: The Globe and Mail

Prediction markets aren’t expecting normalcy any time soon.

Source: Bloomberg

Latin American exceptionalism… the good news.

Source: The Atlas

Latin American exceptionalism… the bad.

Source: The Atlas

Jobs!

Venture Manager Healthcare Robotics | CDL London (Go work for Ben; he’s awesome).

Voyage Delivery Coordinator | CSIRO (Please… someone I know apply for this).

AI Fluency & Innovation Teacher | Mulgrave School (This is a position every secondary school should have).

Program Manager | Lighthouse

Regional Director, Western Canada | Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC)

Manager, Policy and Research | HAVAN (Homebuilders Association Vancouver)

Project Engineer | Metro Vancouver

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A few months ago I was at a conference in Oslo, speaking with a former Chief of Staff from NATO. We were chatting about what the world was learning from the crisis in the Ukraine, and whether this would influence how to plan for a conflict in the Asia-Pacific theatre. The man was smart and accomplished. But he had a blind spot - China.

I won’t re-hash the entire conversation here, but it was clear that he was more interested in where China has stumbled than where it has excelled. This a major risk of Western business and policy leaders. They consistently and structurally underestimate the PRC. Or at least, they just aren’t sufficiently curious.

This week, it’s an info dump about Chinese momentum, resources, dynamics, and challenges.

One leader who does seem to get it is Ray Dalio. Here’s his take on the emerging world order. It’s worth the read.

Until next week friends.

Transition skeptics love to point to China’s coal dependence. But it’s a nuanced story.

Source: Ember

Another look at the story of thermal energy generation in China.

Source: Rhodium Group

Here’s a more dramatic look, putting the transition into perspective.

Source: Rhodium Group

A snapshot of China’s trade patterns.

Source: Rand

Revenue sources of various levels ofgovernment in China.

Source: Rand

Note where the spending has shifted over time.

Source: Rand

China’s two-track economy.

Source: Semafor

Who will re-awaken the Chinese consumer? And how?

Source: Semafor

Is this China’s biggest risk?

Source: Semafor

Jobs!

Silviculture Supervisor | Canfor

Project Coordinator | Cape Breton University

Mechanical Designer (EIT) | BPA

Communications Specialist | Nch’ḵay̓ Development Corporation

Area Manager II | Amazon Canada Fulfillment Services

Project Planning & Insights Specialist | Fortis BC

Senior Financial Analyst | Canada Land’s Company

Manager, Sustainability & Climate Innovation | PSP

Manager, Governance and Corporate Secretary | BC Dental Association

Manager, Clinical Informatics, BC Mental Health and Substance Use Services | PHSA

Director of Development, Principal Gifts | UBC

Partner & Director, Head of Portfolio Operations | TELUS Global Ventures

Head of Ventures – Maternity cover | King’s College London

Board Director | Pollution Probe

The Atlas

Why South America Is So Good at Football

There’s a scene that repeats itself every four years. A country from the periphery walks onto the pitch against a power far richer than itself. On the other side there is more money, better stadiums, stronger leagues, modern training centres with data analysts, sports psychologists, doctors, nutritionists. Before the ball is even kicked, the field alrea…

Read more

5 months ago · 25 likes · 6 comments · Daniel Schteingart

By contrast, the potential in Africa, is wildly untapped. There’s so much work to be done building out educational and energy infrastructure. And there’s so much upside in thinking about how to leverage markets and technology to turn this potential into impact. For a deep dive on the energy side, see this piece from Hannah Ritchie:

By the Numbers

Will Africa still be energy-poor in 2050?

Last month, I published an article on Our World in Data — Four minutes of air conditioning — that compared residential electricity consumption per person across various countries, to how much power is needed for cooling technologies…

Read more

8 months ago · 165 likes · 30 comments · Hannah Ritchie

Also, watching the enthusiasm of DRC fans in Houston (go find some reels; they’re incredible), I’d say the world just needs more Africa.

Until next week friends.

Despite Trump — and because of increasing demand — renewables march on in the USA.

Source: Semafor

As generation capacity grows, Africa is being left further behind.

Source: Hannah Ritchie

600+ million people in Africa lack access to electricity. Here’s something worth working on.

Source: Hannah Ritchie

There’s so much untapped potential in Africa. (African countries are in blue on the chart).

Source: One Data

More evidence of untapped potential (African countries are in blue on the chart).

Source: One Data

The World Cup reflects human migration patterns in fascinating ways.

Source: Semafor

South America’s football clubs have deep roots.

Source: The Atlas

It’s rare to see both the USA and China at the very bottom of a list.

Source: The Atlas

In Canada’s auto industry, Honda and Toyota are sticking around.

Source: Trillium

Jobs!

Early-Stage Roles

Co-op Student, Portfolio Strategy | Zymeworks Inc.

R&D Engineering Internship | Arca

Mid-Level Roles

Retail Sales Manager | Little Sesame

Conservation & Energy Management Program Specialist (Conservation Assistance)

Associate Director, Development | UBC Sauder School of Business

Build Canada Fellow | The Line

Senior Project Manager, Commissioning and Closeout | TransLink

Senior Manager, Strategic and Operational Projects | Providence Health Care

Public Sector Business Development and Public Policy Director | WorkDay Canada

Senior Leadership and Governance Roles

Regional Directors, SE and South Asia | IKEA Foundation

Director, Environmental and Regulatory Affairs | FPX Nickel

Global Sustainability Director, Logistics | LEGO